Integrating economic and land use models to anticipate rural vulnerability to climate change

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Award: RES-229-27-0002
PI: Evan Fraser, Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
Dates: 31/08/2007 - 30/08/2010
 
How may climate change affect food production and distribution, and the rural economy? A historical assessment of cases, where relatively small environmental problems have had major effects on food production and distribution systems, can be used to identify key factors that make systems vulnerable. Assessing the importance of these factors in a range of different circumstances and applying this knowledge to predicted changes in our climate can show future effects.
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Publications and outputs

Article (21)
Effects of managed burning upon dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in soil water and runoff water following a managed burn of a UK blanket bog
Gareth Clay; Fred Worrel; Evan Fraser
05/02/2010

Explaining agricultural collapse : macro-forces, micro-crises, and the emergence of land use vulnerability in southern Romania
Evan Fraser; Lindsay Stringer
08/10/2009

Travelling in antique lands : using past famines to develop an adaptability/resilience framework to identify food systems vulnerable to climate change
Evan Fraser
09/01/2008

Local authorities, climate change and small and medium enterprises : identifying effective policy instruments to reduce energy use and carbon emissions
Evan Fraser; J. Bradford; Evan Fraser
07/09/2008

Can economic, land use and climatic stresses lead to famine, disease, warfare and death? : using Europe"s calamitous 14th century as a parable for the modern age
Evan Fraser
09/11/2010

Anticipating vulnerability to climate change in dryland pastoral systems : using dynamic systems models for the Kalahari
Evan Fraser; Andrew Dougill; Mark Reed
30/08/2010

Increased crop failure due to climate change : assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China
Andrew Challinor; Elisabeth Simelton; Mathew Collins; Debbie Hemming; Evan D.G. Fraser
09/11/2010

Quantifying socio-economic characteristics of drought-sensitive regions : evidence from Chinese provincial agricultural data
Evan Fraser; Yang Yua; Dabo Guanc; Termansen Mette; Ning Sunb; Paul Doddsa; Kuishang Fenga; Elisabeth Simeltona
19/02/2009

Crops and climate change : progress, trends and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation
Andrew Challinor; Elizabeth Simelton; Frank Ewert; Evan Fraser; Steve Arnold
08/10/2009

Visitor perceptions of rural landscapes : a case study in the Peak District National, England
Natalie Suckall; Tom Cooper; Claire Quinn; Evan Fraser
05/02/2010

Modelling the coupled dynamics of moorland management and upland vegetation
Daniel S. Chapman; Evan D.G. Fraser; Klaus Hubacek; Mette Termansen; Claire H. Quinn; Aletta Bonn; Nanlin Jin; William E. Kunin; Stephen J. Cornell; Mark S. Reed
09/11/2010

Hydrological responses to managed burning and grazing in an upland blanket bog
Gareth Clay; Fred Worrel; Evan D.G. Fraser; Emma Clark
09/11/2010

Urban agriculture and poverty reduction : evaluating how food production in cities contributes to food security, employment and income in Malawi
David Mkwambisi; Andrew Dougill; Evan D.G. Fraser
09/11/2010

The future of the uplands
J.A. Hodgson; C.H. Quinn; C. Prell; O. Moore; M.J. Kirkby; M. Termansend; F. Worrall; W. Towers; N. Jin; B. Irvine; W.E. Kunin; L.C. Stringer; C. Reid; M.F. Price; D. Moseley; S. Redpath; S. Stagl; S. Thorp; K. Hubacek
09/11/2010

Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability : an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961–2001)
Elisabeth Simelton; Piers Forster; Mette Termansen; Andrew Dougill; Evan Fraser
05/02/2010

Property rights in UK uplands and the implications for policy and management
Claire Quinn; Evan Fraser; Klaus Hubacek; Mark Reed
30/08/2010

Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability : an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961–2001)
Elizabeth Simelton; Andrew Dougill; Piers Forster; Evan Fraser; Mette Termansen
08/10/2009

Anticipating vulnerability to climate change in dryland pastoral systems : using dynamic systems models for the Kalahari
Andrew J. Dougill; Mark S. Reed; Evan D.G. Fraser
09/11/2010

Crops and climate change : progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation
Andrew Challinor; Evan Fraser; Steve Arnold; Frank Ewert; Elisabeth Simelton
05/02/2010

Explaining agricultural collapse : macro-forces, micro-crises, and the emergence of land use vulnerability in southern Romania
Evan Fraser; Lindsay Stringer
05/02/2010

Visitor perceptions of nature in Upland England
Natalie Suckall; Thomas Cooper; Evan Fraser; Claire Quinn
19/02/2009

Research summary (2)
Non-technical summary

22/12/2010

Non-technical summary
Evan Fraser
22/12/2010

Book chapter (2)
Using past climate variability to understand how food systems are resilient to future climate change
Evan Fraser
09/01/2008

The house is both empty and sad
Evan Fraser
19/02/2009

Book (2)
Beef : the story of how meat muscle and milk shaped the world
Andrew Rimas; Evan Fraser
07/09/2008

Empires of food : feast, famine, and the rise and fall of civilizations
Evan Fraser; Andrew Rimas
30/08/2010

Report (1)
Full research report
Evan Fraser
22/12/2010

Journal issue (1)
Resilience and vulnerability of arid and semi-arid social ecological systems
Jan Sendzimir; Evan D.G. Fraser; Claire Quinn
09/11/2010